WASTED CHANCES TO AVOID WAR: THE DRC IS ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is on the brink of collapse. Its President, Félix Tshisekedi, has completely failed in his leadership responsibilities. He has only himself to blame for the armed conflict and humanitarian crisis that is currently engulfing the eastern region of the country. 

The M23 rebels, allegedly backed by Rwanda, have made significant gains in eastern DRC, seizing key cities such as Goma and Bukavu, and are on the verge of moving south towards Katanga.

The national army’s back may already be broken. 

For months, the international community has been pressuring Tshisekedi to engage in talks with the M23, a rebel group that represents a host of unresolved grievances held by the Congolese people. He finally relented in the face of defeats and declining regional support.

But direct talks in the Angolan capital, Luanda, scheduled to begin on Tuesday, 18 March 2025 are now off. 

When Tshisekedi took office in early 2019, he made overtures to M23 that suggested he was open to a constructive dialogue with the rebel group. He eventually invited its leaders to the capital, Kinshasa, for talks.

When they arrived, he effectively abandoned them in a hotel room for a year without meaningfully addressing their concerns. In 2021, the M23 delegation left the hotel room in Kinshasa and returned to their base around the Sabyinyo Volcano northeast of Lake Kivu, near the border where Uganda, Rwanda and the DRC meet. There they plotted their offensive. 

When war broke out in 2022, Tshisekedi’s majority in parliament voted for a law that banned “all forms of negotiations with armed groups that use military-like means against the DRC”, which effectively included groups like the M23. This closed the door on any future integration of the DRC’s myriad armed groups into the army.

More specifically, this move was designed to prevent M23 from becoming a part of the DRC’s political and military future. He later designated the M23 as a terrorist group. 

Threats backfire

Congolese Tutsis – a minority group in Eastern Congo with deep historical roots in the region, predating colonial rule – have been targeted by Tshisekedi and his supporters in government. He has all but accused Congolese Tutsis serving in the DRC military of being Rwandan infiltrators. 

Tshisekedi’s threats have backfired. Supporters of M23 and its allies in the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), which brings together various anti-government groups and armed movements in the DRC, have grown in number as their military victories against government forces in the east have mounted.

New political formations and armed groups, such as Group Kabido, have joined M23 to combat what they describe as “the mismanagement of the Kinshasa government”. 

What was initially a localised struggle in South and North Kivu is quickly becoming a national effort, harnessing decades of grievances over governance failings, massive human rights violations, persecution of opposition groups and the systematic looting of the country’s rich natural endowments.

And perhaps most importantly, it has harnessed widespread anger over the government’s support of The Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), the Hutu rebel group in eastern DRC formed from the remnants of the old Rwandan government army that carried out the 1994 Rwandan genocide before fleeing into the DRC, after being defeated by the Rwandan Patriotic Front.

Government support for the FDLR, their use of mercenaries and their looting of the country’s resources – while never properly investing in a renewed and unified national army – have helped drive communities into the arms of rebels. 

Appeal to Trump

Tshisekedi is now approaching foreign governments for assistance in fighting this war and staying in power. His increasingly desperate manoeuvres include a recent offer to US President Donald Trump.

Tshisekedi is dangling the DRC’s immense strategic mineral wealth in front of Trump for help in defeating the rebels. The DRC is rich in critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium and uranium, which are essential for advanced technologies such as electric vehicles and smartphones.

Trump has not been shy about his desire to acquire such minerals, whether in Greenland or Canada. So why not in Central Africa, especially since – unlike those countries’ leaders, who reject the US’s hostile advances – Trump has been invited by the DRC.

And yet, the entire copper belt in the southern province of Katanga – where many of the critical minerals are located – has already been explored and rights have been distributed among multinational companies that have invested billions of dollars in their own operations. They will not hesitate to resist encroachments by new actors on the scene, whatever permissions they have been granted by Tshisekedi’s government.

It is unclear if the DRC’s president realises the hornet’s nest his offer to Trump has opened. Perhaps he no longer even cares. 

Sinking ship

As the situation spirals out of control, it has become clear that Tshisekedi is no longer the captain of the ship; he is merely a passenger on a sinking vessel. There was a time when millions of Congolese and friends around the world hoped that he could lead the DRC to a better future and leave its violent, chaotic past behind. 

Those hopes were once shared by respected Congolese leaders who had thrown their support behind him. Men like Moise Katumbi, the former governor of Katanga; Jean-Marc Kabund, former vice-president of the national assembly; Vital Kamhere, speaker of the national assembly and former chief of staff to Tshisekedi; Fortunate Biselele, his former senior adviser and lead negotiator.

These and many others have now deserted the president, believing that he is no longer acting in the country’s interest.

Can anything be done to rescue the DRC from plunging even deeper into war and chaos?

The latest initiative from President João Lourenço of Angola, advocating for direct negotiations between Tshisekedi and AFC/M23, has probably come too late to save his government.

There appears to be little Tshisekedi can do to reclaim the support of populations in areas that M23 now controls, which, within weeks of being taken over, have witnessed improvements in security and service delivery. A successful street cleaning campaign – known as “salongo” – has injected a sense of community pride in Bukavu and Goma that has been absent for many years. 

In Katanga, the government has pushed football matches behind closed doors because fans have taken to chanting the name of the AFC coalition leader, Corneille Nangaa Yubeluo, calling for him to take the reins of power in the DRC. Similar scenes have played out in the capital Kinshasa by supporters of top-flight football club, Darling Club Motema Pembe (DCMP).

President Lourenço is to be commended for agreeing to host talks and help his neighbouring country restore peace. But at this moment, with Tshisekedi having betrayed the hopes of so many Congolese for a brighter future, his growing number of opponents is unlikely to throw his waning regime a lifeline. DM

Thomas Jiji Nziratimana is a political scientist and business executive who previously served as the deputy governor of South Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.

2025-03-17T19:38:06Z